Aaron Judge: Top Prospect or Overhyped?

Aaron Judge often draws comparisons to Giancarlo Stanton from excited Yankees fans who dream of having one of the game’s top sluggers, but those comparisons are mostly based on their shared freakish size, and not skill or stats.

The famous line from Brad Pitt in Moneyball, when evaluating a fringe prospect, is “If he’s such a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit good?”

This can be applied to Aaron Judge, who despite hitting 12 home runs in 263 AAA at bats, has just a .255 batting average, and a whopping 72 strikeouts.

To extend the Giancarlo Stanton comparison further, Stanton (who back then went by Mike Stanton), has never even played a game at AAA.   He was called up from AA during the 2010 season.  After 53 games and 192 at bats, he was batting .313 with 21 HR and 52 RBI and just 53 strikeouts – and he was just 20 years old.   In fact, by the time Stanton was as old as Judge is now, he had hit 117 home runs in the major leagues.

Judge, while producing solid home run totals, has never shown the type of hitting ability to be comparable to Stanton.

Will Judge be a decent big league player?  Maybe.   Will he be a star? If you believe the numbers, it’s unlikely.



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